Introduction: What era will France usher in?
As the French general election came to an end, centrist candidate Macron defeated Le Pen with over 65% of the vote and became the new president of France. The so-called “European black swan” that the global media had previously exclaimed was proven to be a complete farce.
For many old poker fans, this result is not surprising. As early as November 30, 2016, we had already mentioned in a ten thousand word article “Don’t be fooled, there are no black swans in France!” (click to see) that due to the existing two round election system in France, the chances of far right parties like Le Pen winning this year’s election were almost zero.
At that time, the original text in the article was: “Therefore, the 2017 presidential election is likely to repeat the history of 2002: all left-wing candidates will be eliminated in the first round, while the only candidate launched by the right-wing through the primary will enter the second round with Fillon and far right Mary Le Pen.
In the end, the National Front is likely to have a basic support rate of over 30%, far exceeding its performance of 18% in 2002, but it will still lose the entire election.
France does not have black swans.
However, if one of the following major events occurs, then Le Pen also has a chance. That would be another Paris terrorist attack similar to last November in France, and it would happen right before the election.
Of course, with good intentions, we hope that the French people will not bear it again.
There will be terrorist attacks before the election, and based on our predictions of the timing of these attacks for the terrorists, Le Pen still hasn’t become a black swan, so we can only blame her.
However, Macron’s victory over Fillon was indeed unexpected for us last year. After all, a year ago, probably no one knew who Macron was.
At the age of only 39, he not only had a very short political career – only served as Minister of Economy for two years and three days, but also did not run for public office and naturally did not make any astonishing moves. If the West tests and selects talents through a lengthy election process, then even elections are the first time for it. However, it was such a political fresh meat without party machinery, basic skills, experience, and achievements that created the unprecedented history of the Fifth Republic.
Extraordinary things must have extraordinary reasons. It can be said that chance and luck are the primary factors for his victory.
The accidental factor refers to the sudden outbreak of the “empty salary gate” by the traditional right-wing candidate Fillon, who has always been leading, resulting in his elimination. Fillon began serving as prime minister 10 years ago, and for a full five years, no one exposed this scandal. This shows how far sighted and determined the whistleblower was, knowing that he would one day run for president.
If France had adopted the Taiwan style single round absolute majority system, the National Front would have become the ruling party long ago.
But President Charles de Gaulle’s two round electoral system did have foresight, repeatedly successfully excluding far right parties from the center of power and forming a “National Front rule”: whoever confronts it in the second round will definitely become the president.
It can be said that Macron’s victory is the result of a combination of chance and luck. If it weren’t for Le Pen entering the second round, the probability of Macron laughing to the end would not be high.
However, whether it is Macron or Fillon, overall they have not deviated from our judgment of the general direction, that is, Brexit and Trump’s election have excessively overdrawn the rise of global populism, and Trump’s election has not been able to effectively implement his governing platform, even triggering large-scale social unrest, which will inevitably slow down right-wing public opinion in France.
As for whether the two round election system can still stop the progress of the National Front in five years, please read poker related articles again in five years.
In fact, the head of the Poker Finance Content Department shared in-depth insights on geopolitical research results, recent macro topics related to the futures market, and macro research in a small scope at the previous “Symposium on Futures Markets and Macroeconomics” regarding the basic logic of the entire French election and analysis of the future macro situation.
After the election results are revealed, it is also time to share the core logical judgment with the entire market.
Core Logic of the Symposium on Futures Markets and Macroeconomics
Macro geopolitical analysis prediction, in fact, the most essential point can be summarized into four words, which is: do not follow the path.
If there is a way in heaven, there is no way of impermanence.
When it comes to the Tao, if the heavens have the Tao, then things are impermanent. If there is no constant, then there is clarity. If there is clarity, then the world becomes clear.
It may sound confusing at first, but it’s not difficult to understand. The philosophical depth of not walking on the road lies in the word ‘road’.
What is a road? According to Mr. Lu Xun, there is no road in the world, but as many people walk, it becomes a road.
Last year, including Brexit and Trump’s election, they were not favored by the vast majority of public opinion beforehand, and the reason for not being favored by public opinion was simple, because the vast majority of people were trapped in the thinking mode of “seeing the road and leaving”.
When mainstream public opinion thinks that the UK will not leave the EU and Trump will not be elected, these roads are too crowded. Therefore, we must dare to choose “not to take the road” when there are too many people crowded.
For the French election, on the contrary, after the Brexit and US elections, everyone is betting on the so-called “black swan” outcome, which has become an extremely crowded “road”.
So whenever we see this kind of ‘road’, we are brave enough not to take it.
Of course, the number of people cannot be solely attributed to the judgment of the “path”. More precisely, the philosophical meaning of this path is pattern and experience.
Copying and testing others’ models is what is called ‘seeing the way’. Not only other people’s experience, but also one’s own experience, relying solely on “seeing the way” is not enough.
Similarly, if this thinking pattern is extended to the national level, then anti globalization and populism are also a path, but this path is the path of Anglophone peoples such as Britain and the United States. For the French nation, they have seen this path, but it may not necessarily be necessary to take it.
To some extent, it is precisely because the UK chose to leave the EU, and then the US chose Trump as president, especially Trump’s election, that the cultivation and indulgence of Middle Eastern terrorists by Europe and America during the entire Obama administration were reversed, which appropriately eased the chaos in the Middle East and had a great impact on the elections in France.
Imagine if the UK did not leave the EU, Trump was not elected in the US, but Hillary won the election, and the intelligence agencies of the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia continued to provide arms, training, and funding to terrorist organizations such as ISIS, using the tactic of “supporting their own interests” to hold Europe and the world hostage. Clearly, the turbulent Middle East would force the entire European region into a profound humanitarian and refugee crisis. Under the threat of repeated terrorist attacks, the winner of this French election may not necessarily be Macron, but rather Le Pen.
However, as the situation in the Middle East gradually stabilizes, as long as Syria no longer engages in large-scale wars and there are no other regions with larger military conflicts than Syria, the ability to create refugees in the Middle East has reached a relatively stable upper limit and may even gradually decline. The decline in the number of refugees will further alleviate the refugee crisis and social conflicts in Europe. In this situation, the aversion of French society towards foreign immigrants will also reach a stable upper limit. As long as this upper limit is still within tolerance, Le Pen will not have a chance to step onto the throne.
Once the situation in Europe enters a relatively stable period, the funds that previously flowed out of Europe may return, including assets from Australia, New Zealand, and even the United States, which may be impacted by this.
But the stabilization of Europe is only a brief event. In the long run, Europe will inevitably fall into recession.
The main reason for the decline of Europe and America is that after the end of the Cold War, China gradually integrated into the global economy and carried out industrial upgrading to grab the cake that was originally in Europe and America.
If China does not have a strong government to promote industrial upgrading and manufacturing transformation, it will at best play the role of a large “Four Little Dragons” in the world economic map, playing a role in the European and American industrial chains. However, with the transformation of China’s manufacturing industry, from low-end clothes and socks to mid-range cars and mobile phones, and then to high-end aircraft, aircraft carriers, and chips, the monopoly profits of the high-end manufacturing and technology industries that Europe and America rely on for survival will be continuously eroded.
An additional high-end job opportunity in China means that a corresponding position in Europe and the United States will be squeezed out of the global market competition due to lack of competitiveness. The rising unemployment rate and shrinking excess profits will drag the welfare societies of Europe and America into a bottomless pit.
Ten years ago, our textbooks used the example of exchanging one hundred million shirts for a Boeing plane. Who would have thought that in just over a decade, we have already started producing airplanes and aircraft carriers that were previously out of reach.
All so-called economists who use Western economics as a “path” to analyze China’s development are wrong without exception, and they will become increasingly wrong in the future. Because their brains may not have had the chance to construct this’ seeing the way but not walking ‘way of thinking.
After 1949, China took 30 years to follow the path of the Soviet Union, and in the 30 years after the reform and opening up, it took another 30 years to follow the path of the West in the economic field. For us, we have also entered an era of ‘seeing the path but not taking it’. The path of the Soviet Union and the path of Europe and America are not our paths. One of them has already died on their own, and the other is running wildly on the road to death.
We, especially Chinese media, who are in this great era, should have our own and our own responsibilities for this era. Some media are still walking down the old path of being down-to-earth, while others are simply translating and reposting Western news blogs. These are not the “roads” of poker finance.
Our ‘road’ will see the rise and fall of the entire world economy from China’s perspective, with waves rising and falling.